March saw the final cleanup of Logan's first Duvernay well, which we think is a success. The well, which was on-stream March 3rd, produced 26,400Bbls of oil in the month, implying a producing day rate of 940Bbls/d. We estimate that the peak IP30 rate for this well will be >1,000Bbls/d, which is outperforming our estimate type curve which sees a peak IP30 of 750-800Bbls/d, and an EUR of >500,000Bbls of oil. Recall that Logan got stuck during the completion of this well; ultimately they were able to fish the tools out of the hole.

We estimate that this well will pay out in ~12 months at US$70/Bbl WTI (assuming a $12MM DCE&T cost), and at US$60/Bbl WTI we see pay out in ~17 months. At spot, we see a P/I10% of ~70%, though in development mode, we see that P/I10% increase to ~85% at spot WTI (~US$64/Bbl). We see "development mode" as delivering ~$500K lower DCE&T costs and $0.70/BOE lower OPEX; though given the existing area infrastructure, we are not assuming massive improvements in operating costs. With this data point, our initial EUR estimate maps to >500,000Bbls, which is a very positive figure. Ultimately, when adjusted for length, this well is in-line or slightly better than the offsetting 2014 vintage well that was only drilled to 5,000ft in lateral length (compared to Logan's 11,700ft).

Logan has ~50 follow up locations on their disclosed Simonette lands that don't overlap the Leduc Reefs, most of which we think are very high quality. Ultimately, we think that Logan can grow this asset to ~3,000Bbls/d of oil and maintain that rate for 10-15 years, with the ability to generate ~$30-40MM a year in free cashflow assuming pad drilling and US$70/Bbl WTI.

Below we show a map clip of Logan's Simonette block. Offsetting Logan's asset is a 4-well pad drilled by Veren in 2024. These wells saw lower IP rates, and we estimate will produce less oil over their lifetime; though the data is noisy due to a lack of permanent facilities causing downtime. We also show a clip of offsetting well results, frac stage intensities, and our expected type curve that we published in a mid-April note.