Outside-the-box thinking on Western Canada's oil and gas industry.

Read select previews of previous research papers below.

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May 17, 2025

Spartan Delta continues to deliver overwhelmingly positive news relating to the growth and expansion of their West Shale Basin Duvernay asset.

While we may continue to be early, but the risk-reward owning Spartan equity has never been more compelling since when we first published on the company's Duvernay position in May of 2024. They have proved Tier 1 competitive oil type curves yet the company continues to trade downwards.

April 15, 2025

The merger of Whitecap and Veren creates a must-own Canadian E&P in a foundational transaction that solidifies Whitecap as a senior producer. Whitecap now has unmatched inventory depth and growth runway ahead.

No producer offers such a promising future, with their potential likely to be digested by the market within 1,000 days. At their current valuation, Whitecap is now our highest conviction idea.

March 12, 2025

Kimmeridge’s involvement with Advantage is sensible considering the quality of the Glacier asset; but we question how the outcome resolves, though agree that Advantage is undervalued.

Advantage has an excellent gas asset, but the AECO market is much different than the US' faster-evolving gas market, which may challenge Kimmeridge in realizing any intrinsic value they see being unreflected in the stock.

November 3, 2024

The market's reaction to Veren's plug-n'-perf wells has been way overblown. Veren is an extremely well positioned E&P and offers exceptional value on a go-forward basis.

There have been few companies that have repositioned their portfolio as well as Veren over the past 5-years. While consensus will shift into "wait and see" mode, our exhaustive work in the Montney's updip oil window allows us to confidently say Veren's geology remains top-decile.

October 5, 2024

Considering Birchcliff’s value using a probabilistic perspective – today the equity is not considering any possibility of natural gas volatility capture (let-alone consistently improved pricing).

While we are not constructive on AECO pricing in the near term, Birchcliff can continue to remain as a going concern with long-term value creation levers that are now receiving negative value in their sum-of-the-parts.

August 8, 2024

Baytex’s erroneous deal in the Eagle Ford has seen them dilute their core heavy oil competency. The addition of very low-quality shale assets has introduced material downside to their sum-of-the-parts valuation.

Baytex could have been a Duvernay consolidator with their early position in the basin through Raging River, instead they acquired a marketed Eagle Ford package that did nothing to fundamentally improve their underlying business.

April 2, 2024

Kiwetinohk is a benefactor of both Chevron’s Duvernay coming to market, and new AESO regulation constraining their diversification ability. Today, their equity trades markedly below what recent Duvernay transaction comps imply it should trade at.

Kiwetinohk is trading near PDP value for assets they have materially improved results on in a geologically unique and promising part of the Montney and Duvernay. While they may still see overhang from their attempted power business, we think the upstream is too good not to focus on going forward.

February 20, 2024

The West Shale Basin offers compelling value at the right time with multiple well capitalized E&Ps committing to activity in the area as the market wants new ‘scalable’ inventory. Related equities are not pricing in Duvernay prospects.

The West Shale Basin Duvernay is a world class liquids-rich shale that we think can be materially improved through updated completions designs over the coming years. Two of the most technically competent management teams are positioning into the area, and we think clients should too.

January 22, 2024

Obsidian’s 3-year plan is unlikely to succeed. Their inventory figure is a gross overestimate, type curves are laughably high, and the inventory needed to sustain their 25,000BOE/d target plateau is woefully under-delineated.

We simply do not see how Obsidian can meet their stated targets with the quality of inventory owned throughout the Bluesky. While we think their growth plan is encouraging, they'll likely struggle, inflicting further (avoidable) pain on shareholders.

September 13, 2023

Peyto’s acquisition of Repsol makes the company better in many ways – furnishing them with new high-return opportunities to show off their operational prowess, and improve corporate well performance and capital efficiencies.

Peyto's addition of fresh Deep Basin inventory at a reasonable price completely changes the trajectory of their business, and we expect they'll continue to operate their assets well, but with go-forward geologic tailwinds.