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April 25, 2025

Spartan Delta Willesden Green Duvernay wells tracking to 500,000Bbl oil EURs with 4th month of data

Positive results at Willesden Green continue to affirm our bullish outlook on Spartan, with their equity price still disconnected from underlying fundamentals even considering softer oil prices.

With March Petrinex data, we're now estimating that Spartan's 09-05 pad, the first full-length Spartan drilled and completed wells in the Duvernay, will see economic EURs >500,000Bbls of light oil. Recall, their previous 2 wells on-stream in 2024 were either drilled by Bonavista, or not completed to full length due to mechanical issues with the production casing.

While these wells are unbounded, Spartan's own development plan contemplates 400m interwell spacing. This is fairly wide compared to Baytex who spaced their 2024 development volatile oil wells at ~265m. Thus, we think that bounded development economics will still be extremely robust.

To date, the northbound 03-26 well has produced ~100,000Bbls of oil and condensate (in ~4 months) while the southbound 09-05 well has produced ~85,000Bbls of oil and condensate in the same timeframe. At US$60/Bb WTI, we estimate that these wells (combined) will pay out in 13-14 months, at US$70/Bb WTI, that moves to 9-10 months. We assume a DCE&T cost of $11.75MM per well, with gas gathered and processed through Journey's local facilities.

The 09-05 well has been rate restricted (i.e. choked), while the 03-26 well is producing at what we'd consider closer to its maximum potential. This will be valuable data for Spartan to further improve their drawdown strategies in an area that has notoriously challenging PVT conditions. CORs on the southbound 09-05 well remain flat at ~1,500scf/Bbl, while the northbound 03-26 well has seen GORs increase steadily from ~1,000scf/Bbl in January to ~2,000scf/Bbl in March.

Spartan has a strong inventory of DUCs and licenses. We are watching a Calfrac crew currently complete a 2-well pad within their JV with Journey Energy. Below is a map clip of Spartan's current position in the West Shale Basin, and our updated type curve forecasts.